Will Chicago's homicide ever drop as low as New York City's?
The Answer is likely"No"

Chicago's homicide rate has gone up and down over the last 40 years, but it has also changed its location.

While the Chicago Police Department take credit for the homicide drop, the Los Angeles upswing for the last few years may be more of a portent for the future than NYC's steady drop. Read Hagedorn and Brigid Rauch's analysis. (scroll to section 3.2)

The pattern of homicide in the 1990s closely followed the displacement of the African-American community. Look at our animation of the growth of the Chicago ghetto in the 2oth century.(or for a photo gallery better suited to dial-in connections). Or look at how the expressways and housing projects concentrated homicide in Black areas. Read a policy paper on housing and homicide in a newletter of the Coalition for the Homeless.

Chicago has similarities to Detroit and other high homicide cities in its failure to attain low levels in the 1990s. But Chicago's murder rate is only about half of Detroit's or New Orlean's but now about the same as Los Angeles. How do Chicago and New York's homicide rate compare to other cities like Los Angeles, Detroit, New Orleans, and London?

The Residents Jouranl issue on "Deadly Moves."

Moving at their own Risk by Beuaty Turner and Brian J. Rogal

Troubled Development by Mary C. johns and Brian J. Rogal

Here's a December, 2004 article from the Chicago Tribune crediting
the police.

Homicides in New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago 1965-2005

Chart and Map Homicide Index

The Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation has funded a study
"Violence, Gangs, and the Re-Division of Space in Chicago."
to answer the question why Chicago's homicide rates haven't
fallen like they have in New York City. gangresearch.net will
display data from the study and other public documents and reports.

Homicide follows race, disinvestment, and displacement. See
how the areas of gentrification do not correspond with high
homicide areas. Homicide in Chicago corresponds with
concentration of African Americans, which are areas of
disinvestment and segregation.

The relationship of housing to homicide may surprise
many readers. See Hagedorn's essay in the Chicago Tribune

and an anaysis in the Washington Times.